2022 French Legislative Election: Will Macron's party win an outright majority?
Politics
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Probability Timeline
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No100%
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Rules
In Response to Trader Inquiry: The result that is relevant for this market is the number of seats Emmanuel Macron’s party wins, regardless of what the name of his party is.
- French legislative elections are scheduled for June 12 and 19, 2022.
- Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted every 5 years over 2 rounds of voting.
- A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.
- Following Emmanuel Macron's reelection to the French Presidency, his party "La République En Marche!" (often abbreviated to "LREM" or "En Marche!") changed its name to "Renaissance" in an effort to rebrand itself.
- Given there are 577 seats in the National assembly, winning 289 seats or more qualifies as winning an "outright majority".
