Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 99.1%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 2:34 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.
- Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities.
- ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities.
- It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027
- Markets with the same criteria:
Open markets
AI
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- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get ASI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we get ASI before 2027? resolve?
- Will we get ASI before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027.
- How is Will we get ASI before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.