Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 97.6% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP) resolve?

Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2201.

How is Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if by 2200 humanity has the demonstrated capability to solve all NP problems in worst-case polynomial time, with error probability bounded by a constant.

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