๐๏ธ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? ๐๏ธ
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 11:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, a federal statute is enacted that meaningfully limits or overrides statesโ ability to regulate AI systems.
- NO otherwise.
- Definition of โsubstantially preemptsโ
- Counts as YES if the law does at least one of the following:
- Bans or freezes state AI regulation for any meaningful period (e.g., moratorium)
- Establishes federal AI rules that explicitly override conflicting state laws
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flรกvio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- รdouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mรฉlenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ๐๏ธ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? ๐๏ธ?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does ๐๏ธ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? ๐๏ธ resolve?
- ๐๏ธ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? ๐๏ธ is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is ๐๏ธ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? ๐๏ธ settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, a federal statute is enacted that meaningfully limits or overrides statesโ ability to regulate AI systems.