Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
One-OffRegulationAIHealth & MedicinePolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingJun 16, 26, 6:56 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between June 16, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States federal government enacts a new federal law (signed by the President or passed over veto) or a federal agency publishes a final, binding rule in the Federal Register that specifically regulates, mandates pre-release vetting/testing for, or establishes a licensing framework for "Mythos-class", "Mythos+", or equivalent frontier AI models (specifically those characterized by advanced autonomous cybersecurity, hacking, or biosecurity capabilities similar to or exceeding Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5).
- To qualify as "enacting regulation," the action must:
- Be a newly passed federal statute (act of Congress) or a finalized federal agency regulation published in the Federal Register.
- Establish mandatory requirements, licensing, or vetting specifically targeting these high-capability models (e.g., "Mythos-class" or "Mythos+" models).
- The following do NOT qualify for a YES resolution:
