Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
One-OffRegulationAIHealth & MedicinePolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.7%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 16, 26, 6:56 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between June 16, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States federal government enacts a new federal law (signed by the President or passed over veto) or a federal agency publishes a final, binding rule in the Federal Register that specifically regulates, mandates pre-release vetting/testing for, or establishes a licensing framework for "Mythos-class", "Mythos+", or equivalent frontier AI models (specifically those characterized by advanced autonomous cybersecurity, hacking, or biosecurity capabilities similar to or exceeding Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5).
- To qualify as "enacting regulation," the action must:
- Be a newly passed federal statute (act of Congress) or a finalized federal agency regulation published in the Federal Register.
- Establish mandatory requirements, licensing, or vetting specifically targeting these high-capability models (e.g., "Mythos-class" or "Mythos+" models).
- The following do NOT qualify for a YES resolution:
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria