Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 14.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJun 16, 26, 6:56 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes14%
Volume trend
$1.0kJul 88d of dataJul 17
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Anthropic IPO by __?
$3.5KDecember 31,: 65%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$2.7KBefore Oct 1, 2026: 20%
KALSHI
KALSHIWhat will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029
$48It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion or higher valuation: 60.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
$0$1.5T–$1.75T: 30%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
$4.4KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
$350Yes: 7.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindeskRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.