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Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RegulationOne-Off3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 90.4%

Forecasters

5

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Apr 10, 26, 9:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Open markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+3.0pt86.1%
Yes-3.0pt13.9%

Total Vol: $14.5M
24h Vol: $253.8K

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,-1.0pt86%
November 30,-0.5pt85%

+7 more outcomes

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%

+7 more outcomes

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+2.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 more outcomes

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 more outcomes

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
$1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
$1.5T–$1.75T17.9%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? resolve?: Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

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