Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?
RegulationOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 26, 9:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Loans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsCar with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?
Manifold MarketsCar with no physical side mirrors widely available in the US before 2027
Manifold MarketsIndiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
- In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
- If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.
