Current community forecast
Before Jan 2027 55.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 2:16 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027
Manifold MarketsStephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?
Manifold MarketsLoans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUK social media ban in effect by which date?
PolymarketX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if FSD (Supervised) is generally available to EU customers in a majority of EU member states (≥14/27), via Tesla’s normal purchase/subscription flow, with a substantially similar feature set to the contemporaneous U.S. “FSD (Supervised)” release.
- “Generally available” excludes employee-only access, invitation-only programs, or small pilots limited to a city/region or a tiny capped fleet.
- The market resolves NO otherwise (including if only “Enhanced Autopilot”-style features are available).
- Primary source for resolution: Tesla release notes / official Tesla communications for EU rollout, supplemented by reputable reporting if needed.
- Feel free to comment for improving the criteria.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU??
- Manifold Markets prices Before Jan 2027 at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU? resolve?
- When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria