Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Before Jan 2027 55.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 2:16 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if FSD (Supervised) is generally available to EU customers in a majority of EU member states (≥14/27), via Tesla’s normal purchase/subscription flow, with a substantially similar feature set to the contemporaneous U.S. “FSD (Supervised)” release.
- “Generally available” excludes employee-only access, invitation-only programs, or small pilots limited to a city/region or a tiny capped fleet.
- The market resolves NO otherwise (including if only “Enhanced Autopilot”-style features are available).
- Primary source for resolution: Tesla release notes / official Tesla communications for EU rollout, supplemented by reputable reporting if needed.
- Feel free to comment for improving the criteria.