Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (80%)
Resolved: Aug 10, 2026, 9:48 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 80%
Forecasters
380
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 10:33 PMAug 10, 26, 9:48 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes80%
No20%
80%
20%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve “YES” if Trump or his administration takes any direct action intended to interfere with Greenland.
- This must be done directly through the government of Greenland itself.
- Trump has renewed calls for U.S. annexation of Greenland following public comments from Trump and the wife of top adviser Stephen Miller.
- Trump has previously refused to rule out the use of military or economic force to take Greenland.
- In a 45-minute phone conversation with Danish PM Frederiksen, Trump stated there is reason to believe he is serious in his statements about his increasing interest in Greenland.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump interfere with Greenland??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of August 14, 2026.
- When does Will Trump interfere with Greenland? resolve?
- Will Trump interfere with Greenland? is scheduled to resolve on August 10, 2026.
- How is Will Trump interfere with Greenland? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
