Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90%
No 90%Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 24, 5:22 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump dies within 4 years after leaving office
Manifold MarketsWill Warren Buffett die within 1 year of formally retiring?
Manifold MarketsWill 2.8 billion people be displaced and 1.5 billion people would die within a 2.5°C of global warming by 2150?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.