Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 25, 10:03 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Donald Trump dies in office, who will President Vance choose as his Vice President?
Manifold MarketsTrump dies in office during his 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump die within 1 year after leaving office?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Donald Trump dies during office (i.e., before leaving office), this market will resolve to N/A.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump dies within 4 years after leaving office?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump dies within 4 years after leaving office resolve?
- Trump dies within 4 years after leaving office is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Trump dies within 4 years after leaving office settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Donald Trump dies during office (i.e., before leaving office), this market will resolve to N/A.