Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
One-OffAITechSociety & Culture2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 25, 4:20 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
I have bet @CrypticQccZ at 9:1 odds that at least 100K people worldwide will belong to successionist movements/religions by November 7, 2028.
- I will pay them $900 if this market resolves NO, and he will pay me $100 if it resolves YES.
- There are two independent pathways to a YES resolution (the bet resolves YES if either group described below encompasses more than 100K individuals):
- Resolves to majority vote of 3 independent observers chosen by both of us on Nov 7, 2028.
- In the likely event that successionist groups exist in some form, but clear numbers are not available, judges will make an honest attempt to make a point estimate of the number of people who belong to groups matching the description of each of the following two pathways to a YES resolution.
- First pathway to a YES resolution: 100,000 or more people worldwide belong to successionist ideological movements or political causes.
