What are the current odds for AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering??

Manifold Markets prices 2029-01-01 at 86.3% as of October 31, 2026.

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

One-OffAI Tech2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

2029-01-01 86.3%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Jun 20, 24, 6:30 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Options are inclusive: if this happens tomorrow then all options resolve to YES.

This market will of course resolve somewhat subjectively.
The overall idea is "there is a model that I can use instead of hiring an intern".
Some things I expect such a model to be able to do:
Take a paper as input and give a runnable rough draft implementation (does not need to be bug free)
Experiment with hyperparameters for an existing model ("grad student descent")