Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60%
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74
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 9 minutes ago
Feb 21, 25, 9:33 PM UTCJan 27, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Original post: "major" protests defined as over 1 million people in one city OR over 10 million people in various cities/locations within the U.S., in the same day.
- Needs to be at least one reliable estimate reaching that threshold to validate (if there are conflicting reports, will resolve if one independent news source, police force, agency, etc cites numbers that qualify).
- Any protests related to Trump, his administration (including Musk or similar) or his policies would count (e.g. a Women's rights march or a march to stand up for the poor inspired by cuts to funding would count).
- A protest in response to a general SCOTUS decision would not count (e.g. overturning Roe), unless the SCOTUS decision was about Trump or a Trump policy (e.g. allowing Trump to run for a third term or upholding a controversial Trump policy that he would then get to enact).
- Poll will close when such a protest happens or a new president is in office.
- UPDATE 4/5/25 - I'm not sure how many are digging into the resolution criteria, but this is intended to get at massive, historic level protests, so I am revising the title to be more clear.
