Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 96.6% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? resolve?

Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? is scheduled to resolve on May 10, 2027.

How is Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester).

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POLYMARKET

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• 25 bps increase7%
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• Gadi Eizenkot+1.6pt55.1%
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KALSHI

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• Democrats sweep-1.0pt63.5%
• D-House, R-Senate+3.0pt28.5%
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• Democratic Party+0.5pt90.5%
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24h Vol

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POLYMARKET

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• Democratic Party91.1%
• Republican Party8.9%

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24h Vol

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KALSHI

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• James Talarico+1.0pt64.5%
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