Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
growth > 3% 97.2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingJul 4, 24, 7:52 AM UTCMay 1, 30, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
First eligible year is 2024, last one is 2029.
- Resolved using official figures of inflation adjusted GDP.
- If possible taking the median of the figures published by The World Bank, the IMF, and the UN, and in any case trying to keep to the spirit of the original question as much as possible.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices growth > 3% at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030? resolve?
- Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on May 1, 2030.
- How is Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: First eligible year is 2024, last one is 2029.