Will the USA congress have a Green Party or Libertarian member first before EOY 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastneither before EOY 2027 86%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 10:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will there be a senator or house rep (delegates and non voting members count) that affiliates with the greens or libertarians before EOY 2027? If so, what happens first? If happens on same day, resolves 50/50.
- If neither happens before EOY 2027, resolve to that.
- For this market, affiliation with any green or libertarian party location division counts.
- So if they decide to affiliate with the Alaskan Libertarian party, that would count as liberterian.
- Must be that party at time of swearing in, or if they change to it during the term, that’s fine.
- Prior affiliation doesn’t count.
