Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFully fair 65%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 3:42 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Fully fair at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.