Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 90.9%
No 90.9%Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 30, 23, 5:44 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The New York Times, in its lawsuit against OpenAI, seeks the deletion of all language models trained with data that includes any Times articles.
- Should that happen, it is likely that a precedent will be set that prevents other companies from including articles from any newspaper in their training data.
- At the same time, it will be impossible to enforce such a provision against open source models, some of which will have anonymous authors.
- Effective altruists like @EliezerYudkowsky have often criticized open source AI as dangerous and believe that limitations on the distribution of model architectures and weights are preferable.
- This market resolves to YES if:
- The lawsuit is decided in the New York Times' favor, either by judgment or by settlement