Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 30, 23, 5:44 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The New York Times, in its lawsuit against OpenAI, seeks the deletion of all language models trained with data that includes any Times articles.
- Should that happen, it is likely that a precedent will be set that prevents other companies from including articles from any newspaper in their training data.
- At the same time, it will be impossible to enforce such a provision against open source models, some of which will have anonymous authors.
- Effective altruists like @EliezerYudkowsky have often criticized open source AI as dangerous and believe that limitations on the distribution of model architectures and weights are preferable.
- This market resolves to YES if:
- The lawsuit is decided in the New York Times' favor, either by judgment or by settlement
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety? resolve?
- Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The New York Times, in its lawsuit against OpenAI, seeks the deletion of all language models trained with data that includes any Times articles.