Current community forecast
The case will settle out of court 37.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
412
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 28, 23, 1:38 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The New York Times' lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft for alleged copyright infringement in training its AI models has raised critical questions about intellectual property in the age of artificial intelligence.
- As of December 27, 2023 OpenAI has not yet responded publicly to the lawsuit.
- Both parties are likely engaging in legal strategy and potentially settlement negotiations.
- Similar lawsuits by authors against OpenAI are also pending, potentially influencing the legal landscape surrounding AI training and copyright.
- This case could have significant implications for the future of AI development and the copyright rights of content creators.
- This market focuses solely on the outcome of the initial lawsuit, excluding subsequent appeals.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count??
- Manifold Markets prices The case will settle out of court at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count? resolve?
- New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The New York Times' lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft for alleged copyright infringement in training its AI models has raised critical questions about intellectual property in the age of artificial intelligence.