Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96.2%
Forecasters
80
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 9, 26, 8:06 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsP(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsDoes a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRules
Resolves to YES if the Milky Way still exists in 2030.
- I will treat this as an adversarial long-term interest market that should better reflect the interest rates in real long-term markets.
- I will try to keep the "No" price as high as possible.
- This may include:
- Buying "No" shares
- Buying "No" shares at inconvenient times to make people lose their league spot
