Current community forecast
Yes 74.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 23, 4:58 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? resolve?
- Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
