Current community forecast
Yes 74.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 23, 4:58 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AGI successfully intervene and prevent the collision between the Milky Way Galaxy and the Andromeda Galaxy?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.
