Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in September?

• No change-3.0pt67.3%
• 25 bps increase+4.0pt31.7%
• 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$46.3M

24h Vol

$4.2M

KALSHI

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

• Fed maintains rate-4.0pt65.3%
• Hike 25bps+4.0pt31.7%
• Cut 25bps1%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$12.1M

KALSHI

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

• Exactly 0 cuts+0.4pt83.5%
• Exactly 1 cut-0.7pt9.7%
• Exactly 2 cuts+0.4pt2.9%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes+7.0pt56%
• No-7.0pt44%

Total Vol

$7.9M

24h Vol

$171.6K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed rate decision in September 2026

• Fed maintains rate+1.0pt65.6%
• Hike 25bps28.8%
• Cut 25bps+1.0pt2.4%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$162K

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

• 0 (0-0.7pt85.9%
• 1 (2510.1%
• 2 (50-0.6pt3%

+10 more outcomes

Total Vol