Current community forecast
Yes 72.2%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 25, 8:22 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States exist as a stable, independent democracy by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
FutuurNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
This market predicts whether the European Union will still exist as a political and economic union of member states with shared sovereignty in key policy areas by December 31, 2050.
- For this market to resolve YES, the EU must:
- Have at least 20 member states
- Maintain a single market with free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among member states
- Have common institutions including the European Commission, European Parliament, and European Council
- Have a common currency (Euro) used by a majority of member states
