Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
PoliticsQuarterlyUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 26, 5:51 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Osborn outperforms his 2024 results?
Manifold MarketsWill Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
Manifold MarketsWill TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if the Democrats win more than 235 house seats in 2026.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026] resolve?
- Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026] is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if the Democrats win more than 235 house seats in 2026.