Current community forecast
No 86.5%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 12:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will $TSLA close above $1000 per share by December 31 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TSLA reach $800 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
KalshiSTRC hits $100 by…
PolymarketRules
Across the full year, measured from the last close of 2025 to the final close of 2026, will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 index?
- Starting prices: TSLA $449.72; SPX a.k.a.
- INX $6845.50
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt77.7%
- Apple+0.6pt13.6%
- Alphabet6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $122.3K
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 27,510 or above99%
- 28,550 or above98%
- 29,130 or above98%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $119.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.2K
KALSHIS&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 7,650 or above99%
- 7,660 or above99%
- 7,600 or above99%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $55K
- 24h Vol
- $54.8K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9917.1%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9915.2%
- 7,600 to 7,799.99-1.0pt10.5%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?
- Down+32.5pt98%
- Up-32.5pt2%
- Total Vol
- $48K
- 24h Vol
- $45.3K
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- EQT Energy Company (EQT) Up or Down - Daily
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- S&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Up or Down - Daily
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026? resolve?
- Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Across the full year, measured from the last close of 2025 to the final close of 2026, will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 index?