Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (46.3%)

Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 8:24 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 53.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Aug 12, 26, 4:55 AMAug 18, 26, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes46.3%

No53.7%

53.7%

Yes

46.3%

Rules

A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.

Resolves yes if he (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (Republican)[a], former U.S. Forest Service employee[9][3] (no relation to the incumbent)) advances based on votes recieved in the primary.
Any legal challenge based on his name does not affect the outcome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska

Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (46.3%)

Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 8:24 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 53.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Aug 12, 26, 4:55 AMAug 18, 26, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes46.3%

No53.7%

53.7%

Yes

46.3%

Rules

A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.

Resolves yes if he (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (Republican)[a], former U.S. Forest Service employee[9][3] (no relation to the incumbent)) advances based on votes recieved in the primary.
Any legal challenge based on his name does not affect the outcome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of August 20, 2026.
When does Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026? resolve?: Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2026.
How is Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.

Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?

Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?

Frequently asked questions

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