Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?
Latin AmericaOne-OffTechSpace3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 1:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during SpaceX's 14th integrated Starship flight test (commonly referred to as Starship Flight 14 or IFT-14), SpaceX executes an active attempt to catch the first-stage Super Heavy booster using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla).
- What constitutes a "catch attempt"? A catch attempt is defined as the Super Heavy booster returning to a launch pad (e.g., Starbase, Texas) and attempting a landing burn to guide itself into the launch tower's arms for recovery.
- Success is not required for a YES resolution: If the booster guides itself to the tower to attempt a catch, the market resolves to YES even if the catch ultimately fails (e.g., the booster crashes, explodes, or damages the tower during the catch sequence).
- What resolves to NO? The market will resolve to NO if:
- The booster is intentionally diverted to a water landing (such as a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico) without attempting a tower catch.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? resolve?
- Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria