Selected book midpoint
October · —
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Stored reference
October 1%Leader of 3 outcomes
October 1%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$750.2
Low liquidityOpen interest
$2K
Bid / Ask
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OctoberSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 8, 26, 4:18 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
AugustLost
September 30,Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · October
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
Manifold MarketsWill an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?
Manifold MarketsBy when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
- A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
- If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify.
- If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
- The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
