Current community forecast
Yes 81.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 8:46 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
Manifold MarketsChopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by which date?
PolymarketWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Jared Isaacman announced today that the exploration upper stage for SLS will be cancelled and replaced with an unspecified "standardized" stage.
- Will this be the Centaur V?
- Resolves to false if the Artemis mission are cancelled before flying a planned Centaur V, the Artemis missions are flown only with an alternative, or if NASA is forced to continue with the EUS as mandated previously.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage? resolve?
- Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Jared Isaacman announced today that the exploration upper stage for SLS will be cancelled and replaced with an unspecified "standardized" stage.