Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.6%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 24, 4:32 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
Manifold MarketsWill the fundamental law of Hungary define a human being as either male or female on April 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The Artemis mission will not take any human being to the moon in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does The Artemis mission will not take any human being to the moon in 2026 resolve?
- The Artemis mission will not take any human being to the moon in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.