Current community forecast
Yes 80%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 23, 7:12 AM UTCDec 17, 30, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsArtemis 4 Launch Year
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if at least one Artemis III astronaut successfully sets foot on the lunar surface, and all Artemis III astronauts return safely to Earth.
- If the first Artemis crewed lunar landing is moved from Artemis III to a different Artemis mission, this question will resolve based on the result of that mission instead.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful? resolve?
- Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful? is scheduled to resolve on December 17, 2030.
- How is Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if at least one Artemis III astronaut successfully sets foot on the lunar surface, and all Artemis III astronauts return safely to Earth.