Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 24, 12:59 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurReal person of color exists before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
Manifold MarketsWho will be in the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
This is the stated goal of the Artemis program, per the NASA website (at time of posting).
- [image]Will NASA’s Artemis land the first woman and the first person of color on the moon?
- Resolves YES once both milestones have been achieved.
- Resolves NO if any other country beats the USA to either of these milestones.
- Resolves NO if Artemis ends, or is canceled (evidenced by Artemis’ Wikipedia not having “present” listed as the Duration’s end).
- “Person of color”, if controversial, will use NASA’s marketing materials (and any statements by the astronauts themselves) as Resolution criteria.