Current community forecast
Yes 67.1%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 26, 3:50 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by which date?
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt.
- An attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch.
- I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site.
- Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution.
- (Added 08/26/26)
Open markets
Tech
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+3 more outcomes
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+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? resolve?
- Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria