Current community forecast
2030-12-31 26.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 10, 24, 10:32 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
Manifold MarketsChopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by which date?
PolymarketSpace Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
PolymarketBy when will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission launch?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
The Exploration Upper Stage is currently planned to fly as part of the Artemis 4 mission in September 2028.
- When will it fly?
- All options are on or before the date/time listed, local time at the launch site.
- Resolves on launch of the carrier rocket; success of the launch or the stage itself is not required.
- All options resolve No if the EUS program is cancelled.
- Use in the Artemis 4 mission is not required; if it's replaced with something else on that mission and then flies on some other launch, options resolve according to when it flies.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030-12-31 at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch? resolve?
- By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is By when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Exploration Upper Stage is currently planned to fly as part of the Artemis 4 mission in September 2028.