Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Latin AmericaOne-OffTechSpace1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.6%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 26, 12:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).
- To resolve as YES:
- SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.
- This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ? resolve?
- Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria