Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Latin AmericaOne-OffTechSpace1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 26, 12:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsStarship Flight 15: what happens to the ship? (first tower catch attempt, by Nov 30)
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).
- To resolve as YES:
- SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.
- This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
