Current community forecast
Yes 56.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 2:22 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during Starship Flight 15, SpaceX makes an active attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (commonly referred to as the "Ship" or second stage) using the mechanical "chopstick" arms of a launch/recovery tower (such as the Mechazilla tower at Starbase, Texas, or another landing site).
- An active catch attempt is defined as the Ship guiding itself back to a landing/recovery tower during its final descent, performing a landing burn over or adjacent to the tower, with the active intention of capture.
- A successful catch resolves YES.
- An unsuccessful catch attempt (e.g., the Ship is actively guided to the tower but crashes, explodes, or misses the chopstick arms during the final capture sequence) resolves YES.
- If a flight director abort is triggered during descent, or if telemetry issues cause the vehicle to intentionally divert to a water splashdown rather than attempting a tower catch, this resolves NO.
