Current community forecast
No 97.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 24, 25, 3:34 AM UTCJun 1, 28, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
So far all full stack Starship launches have launched from pad A, and all booster catches have been performed by tower A. But construction at the nearby Pad B continues and Ryan Hansen has recently speculated that the first ship catch attempt could involve a launch and booster catch at Pad A, but a ship catch using tower B (see the following twitter thread for his reasoning)
- This question resolves based on the first official flight plan that SpaceX releases featuring a ship catch and is not concerned with any flight outcomes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B? resolve?
- Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B? is scheduled to resolve on June 1, 2028.
- How is Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: So far all full stack Starship launches have launched from pad A, and all booster catches have been performed by tower A. But construction at the nearby Pad B continues and Ryan Hansen has recently speculated that the first ship catch attempt could involve a launch and booster catch at Pad A, but a ship catch using tower B (see the following twitter thread for his reasoning)