Current community forecast
Caught by the tower 51.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+13.3 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 4, 26, 12:18 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
5x ABS(Day Change %(SPCX)) The 1st Market Day After 1st Ship Catch Attempt.
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 (expected vehicles: Booster 22 / Ship 42, provisionally no earlier than Oct 19, 2026) is the planned first attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (the ship) with the launch tower's arms.
- Elon Musk put the odds of a successful first catch at "at least 50 or 60 percent." Flight 14 (Sep 28) ended with the ship splashing down in the Pacific as planned.
- This market asks what happens to Flight 15's SHIP.
- Only one answer can win.
- the named outcome.
- SpaceX confirms, or official SpaceX video clearly shows, that the ship was caught and held by the tower arms.
