Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
9.5 pts (24h)Tech4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIFT 14 61.1%+9.5ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-21.3 pts
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Mar 19, 24, 3:46 AMJan 2, 27, 3:59 PM
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Rules
An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices IFT 14 at 61% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? resolve?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.