Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92.9%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 23, 1:16 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
Manifold MarketsPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
PolymarketWill Nick Reiner be pardoned by Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill French journalist Christophe Gleizes be pardoned or released from Algerian detention before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsJames Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
PolymarketPrince Andrew sentenced to prison?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt25%
- October 31-2.5pt11%
- September 30-0.6pt3%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- John Brennan-1.0pt52%
- Leon Black31%
- Anthony Fauci-4.0pt25%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+21.5pt76%
- 60+-23.0pt13.5%
- <20-1.4pt8.3%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWho will be arrested before 2027?
- John Brennan27%
- Mahmoud Khalil+0.5pt19%
- James Clapper12%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $433K
POLYMARKETSBF released from custody in 2026?
- No-0.1pt98%
- Yes+0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $457.2K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
- Jimmy Lai released by which date?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Jack Doherty Prison Time?
- Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SBF be pardoned??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will SBF be pardoned? resolve?
- Will SBF be pardoned? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.