Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 51%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 8, 22, 6:08 PM UTCDec 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Republicans win the Senate, Republicans win the House, and Democrats win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
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PolymarketWill the Republicans win the Senate and House in the 2026 election?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if after the 2028 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
- Resolves N/A if these elections do not take place.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections? resolve?
- Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2028.
- How is Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if after the 2028 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes.