Will Republicans win the early voting game and win the 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-Off2026 US MidtermsElectionUS Politics1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingOct 24, 26, 5:26 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if both of the following conditions are met regarding the 2026 United States midterm elections:
- Electoral Control: The Republican Party wins or retains a majority in both the U.S. Senate (at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if holding the vice presidency) and the U.S. House of Representatives (at least 218 seats) following the November 2026 elections, based on official certified results reported by major decision desks (e.g., AP News).
- Early Voting Margin: Registered Republicans (or voters casting early ballots on Republican primary/party-affiliated lists where tracked) cast more total early/absentee votes nationally than registered Democrats, as tracked and reported by nonpartisan tracking repositories such as the University of Florida Election Lab (formerly the U.S. Elections Project) or state election agency totals.
- If Republicans fail to achieve either condition—either failing to win/hold both chambers of Congress or failing to outpace Democrats in overall early/absentee ballots cast—the market resolves to NO.
- Note: Because "win the early voting game" is colloquial, the creator may update or narrow the specific data source and definition (e.g., aggregate early vote total vs. key battleground states) prior to election day.