Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
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130
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 9, 24, 7:16 PM UTCNov 2, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
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FutuurRules
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are happy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely impactful, vastly outweighs any harms, and was more sizable than what other post WWII presidents have accomplished, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority Requirement Clarification:
- A majority of prominent rationalists must hold the view that Trump’s second term was the most positively impactful since 1960.
