Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 76%
Yes 76%Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 23, 1:08 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
