Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 78%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 23, 12:48 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":
- 1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- 2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow.
- This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals.
- It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030? resolve?
- Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":