Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.6%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 23, 12:48 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":
- 1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- 2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow.
- This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals.
- It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens.
