Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2030+ or never 71.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
60
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Oct 26, 23, 6:35 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".
- The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.
- The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.
- This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030+ or never at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? resolve?
- In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".