Will One Nation’s primary vote share in the next federal election exceed 15%?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle East1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 26, 2:48 AM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Pauline Hanson and One Nation have been consistently vocal in their support for Israel (wearing Israeli flag scarves in the Senate, condemning Hamas, criticising Labor’s position, etc.).
- Labor currently holds government and has taken a more critical stance toward Israel at times.
- This market resolves YES if One Nation’s national primary vote at the next federal election is above 15%.
- It resolves NO if it is 15% or below.
- Resolution source: official Australian Electoral Commission results.
