Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 2, 25, 5:40 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?
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FutuurWill Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats
SmarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040? resolve?
- Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.