What are the current odds for If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving??

Manifold Markets prices No at 89.1% as of October 23, 2026.

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 4:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 89.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Nov 23, 23, 1:14 AM UTCNov 29, 27, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.

Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027.
Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level).
Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving.
If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.