Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.6%
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33
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 7:08 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Donald Trump has announced plans to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants from the United States.
- The question focuses on whether these mass deportations will result in at least 10,000 deaths over the course of Trump’s new term.
- For the purposes of this question, “deportation-related deaths” are defined as fatalities directly resulting from or associated with the deportation process, including but not limited to:
- Fatalities occurring during arrest, detention or deportation, including deaths from illness, violence, accidents, overcrowding or poor conditions in deportation centers, or lack of standard medical care.
- Deaths resulting from exposure to unsafe conditions in the countries detainees are deported to, provided there is credible evidence linking these fatalities to the deportation.
- Fatalities caused by potential violence or human rights abuses directly associated with U.S. immigration enforcement or deportation policies.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations? resolve?
- Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2029.
- How is Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Donald Trump has announced plans to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants from the United States.